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tawlibann
03-18 11:00 PM
:D
I agree. Let's forget about this misunderstanding. As to the current topic, here is also Greg Siskind's opinion (his blog) which I just found:
On the Visa Bulletin, DOS' Charles Oppenheim has the difficult job of trying to move the priority dates exactly enough to get the maximum number of visas issued in the fiscal year. In years past, hundreds of thousands of visas were wasted because of forecasting problems. It's one of the reasons behind last summer's mess. There is no grand conspiracy on Mr. Oppenheim's part to try and disadvantage any group or deliberately shortchange the immigrant community. So I'm going to assume that the moving around of the numbers was done with the goal of squeezing out every last visa of the 140,000 available.
There probably really isn't any conspiracy or wrongdoing on DOS's part with regard to the last bulletin, and I do hope they do their best to use visas efficiently so that everyone becomes Current sooner rather than later. Maybe they should just do a better job at explaining information and educating people, so that one group doesn't think they're becoming disadvantaged and start doing foolish things.
I agree. Let's forget about this misunderstanding. As to the current topic, here is also Greg Siskind's opinion (his blog) which I just found:
On the Visa Bulletin, DOS' Charles Oppenheim has the difficult job of trying to move the priority dates exactly enough to get the maximum number of visas issued in the fiscal year. In years past, hundreds of thousands of visas were wasted because of forecasting problems. It's one of the reasons behind last summer's mess. There is no grand conspiracy on Mr. Oppenheim's part to try and disadvantage any group or deliberately shortchange the immigrant community. So I'm going to assume that the moving around of the numbers was done with the goal of squeezing out every last visa of the 140,000 available.
There probably really isn't any conspiracy or wrongdoing on DOS's part with regard to the last bulletin, and I do hope they do their best to use visas efficiently so that everyone becomes Current sooner rather than later. Maybe they should just do a better job at explaining information and educating people, so that one group doesn't think they're becoming disadvantaged and start doing foolish things.
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jcgc
02-21 10:43 AM
NOT EVERYONE REGISTERS AT THESE POS SITES. lol
C'mon be realistic.
Exactly...If everyone registers, then we wouldnt need to estimate any ratios. Would we?
Also even when people do register their case on this site, not many register their dependents cases.
in FY08 we know for sure that EB2 Inida quota has been consumed. That gives a definite number of approvals to use for estimation. When i estimate that represents 6.75% of these cases (all cases upto Dec03), this ratio is a reasonable estimate of all the people who do not register.
C'mon be realistic.
Exactly...If everyone registers, then we wouldnt need to estimate any ratios. Would we?
Also even when people do register their case on this site, not many register their dependents cases.
in FY08 we know for sure that EB2 Inida quota has been consumed. That gives a definite number of approvals to use for estimation. When i estimate that represents 6.75% of these cases (all cases upto Dec03), this ratio is a reasonable estimate of all the people who do not register.
dealsnet
03-19 11:12 AM
The conservative approch for the dependants is 1.2 to 1.5 times the labor approvals. Not all people have a dependants.
Husband and wife have labor approved. Like my case, my wife have labor approved, but I have file with my labor, which have older PD. Working family with husband and wife in H1B most of them have labor approved. So the actual number will be diffrent.
From the PERM statistics,
ROW adjustment should be 55% from the total number of pending cases
EB3 are 30%
If the total number of case pending with USCIS is 833,141 (all I-485 including Family based) (based on 12/31 numbers), so EB3 ROW are only 137,468. This means that with the current trend of DOS to avoid wasting GC we should expect the cut-off dates for EB3ROW to be 2006/2007.
Even if I take your figures at face value, I see a shortage of 60000 visas. This is because we need to consider that each LC will use more than one EB visa (due to family members). If I take a conservative figure that there will be one dependent for each LC candidate, we will need 200,000 EB visas for the 100,000 LCs.
Husband and wife have labor approved. Like my case, my wife have labor approved, but I have file with my labor, which have older PD. Working family with husband and wife in H1B most of them have labor approved. So the actual number will be diffrent.
From the PERM statistics,
ROW adjustment should be 55% from the total number of pending cases
EB3 are 30%
If the total number of case pending with USCIS is 833,141 (all I-485 including Family based) (based on 12/31 numbers), so EB3 ROW are only 137,468. This means that with the current trend of DOS to avoid wasting GC we should expect the cut-off dates for EB3ROW to be 2006/2007.
Even if I take your figures at face value, I see a shortage of 60000 visas. This is because we need to consider that each LC will use more than one EB visa (due to family members). If I take a conservative figure that there will be one dependent for each LC candidate, we will need 200,000 EB visas for the 100,000 LCs.
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desi3933
03-09 12:49 PM
by the way shusterman predicted ROW will retrogress in his blog found at shusterman.com there was also an IV post about this (abbout somethin like shusterman got a call from clinton or something)..........
so what happened to the quareterly spill over ???????????
spillover happens only when there are more EB based visas available than the number actually issued in the last quarter,
People who don't believe the slow movement should get reality check done.
so what happened to the quareterly spill over ???????????
spillover happens only when there are more EB based visas available than the number actually issued in the last quarter,
People who don't believe the slow movement should get reality check done.
more...
pappu
04-23 10:18 AM
This meeting was a success since IV was able to display support for the bill and also then follow up after the meeting. IV core members worked hard to make this event a success and we are happy to report this. We did get an irresponsible member gautamagg in this event by using IV's name and asking a wrong question. This Q and A session should have been used to talk about the general issues of the organization members and that IV fully supports the bill that brings relief to us. And not asking if this congressman can get me a F1 visa because I don't want to spend $100 and ask this question to a lawyer. Or saying I am getting a 100K salary now and if I get my greencard I can get 120K salary and I am very depressed because of that. It is really tough to discipline everyone coming to the meetings and making sure each question will be well thought of and coordinated. There are definitely some lessons learnt after such representations in public meetings.
Many thanks to gsc999 for bringing a banner and wearing IV t-shirt. We also want to acknowledge his contributions of over $1K to immigrationvoice and wish we have more members like him. Many thanks to members who helped us call all CA members and ensured we have a good turnout. Our success will be very close if we have such committed and responsible members.
Members are requested to be mature and responsible in such meetings. If you are using IV’s name and IV has invited you for the meeting, you are representing all 10,700+ members and you are their voice.
Many thanks to gsc999 for bringing a banner and wearing IV t-shirt. We also want to acknowledge his contributions of over $1K to immigrationvoice and wish we have more members like him. Many thanks to members who helped us call all CA members and ensured we have a good turnout. Our success will be very close if we have such committed and responsible members.
Members are requested to be mature and responsible in such meetings. If you are using IV’s name and IV has invited you for the meeting, you are representing all 10,700+ members and you are their voice.
gulute
06-11 02:11 PM
done
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PresidentO
02-11 01:19 PM
Read this
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf
and tell us, where do you see 13,000 unused numbers?
Desi3933,
+1
People keep falling for the attorney's sensationalism. If he is so *darn* right, why does not he got to DOS and get an explanation on why they did not extend dates further and why DOS did not do the math right. Just because you have a blog does not mean that you can write what ever you want. Well I guess you could. Obviously, our fellow members think that they really lost a chance at the green card. An attorney writes a piece of crap with out substantiative evidence or an authority such as DOS confirming underutilization of visa numbers and our members go on the roof and start yelling What is IV doing?
If any one has looked at the bills sponsored by congresswoman lofgren in the past congress, one of the bills eliminate the spill over of visas from FB to EB and vice versa. If the numbers are coming into EB from FB this year, FB was the one that was supposed to get numbers from EB last year. As I recall during the final Q of 08, DOS announced that there were 22K visa numbers or what so ever that came in from FB and moved dates all the way into Aug 06 for EB2 India. Hence there must *NOT* have been any spill over last year and DOS unable to walk on the slippery slope actually issued 1120 more visas as you pointed and benefitted AOS applicants.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf
and tell us, where do you see 13,000 unused numbers?
Desi3933,
+1
People keep falling for the attorney's sensationalism. If he is so *darn* right, why does not he got to DOS and get an explanation on why they did not extend dates further and why DOS did not do the math right. Just because you have a blog does not mean that you can write what ever you want. Well I guess you could. Obviously, our fellow members think that they really lost a chance at the green card. An attorney writes a piece of crap with out substantiative evidence or an authority such as DOS confirming underutilization of visa numbers and our members go on the roof and start yelling What is IV doing?
If any one has looked at the bills sponsored by congresswoman lofgren in the past congress, one of the bills eliminate the spill over of visas from FB to EB and vice versa. If the numbers are coming into EB from FB this year, FB was the one that was supposed to get numbers from EB last year. As I recall during the final Q of 08, DOS announced that there were 22K visa numbers or what so ever that came in from FB and moved dates all the way into Aug 06 for EB2 India. Hence there must *NOT* have been any spill over last year and DOS unable to walk on the slippery slope actually issued 1120 more visas as you pointed and benefitted AOS applicants.
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rajuram
01-25 01:26 AM
For my part, I send an email everyday to the white house and the state dept. This is probably not enough.....but may be some day it will work.
BTW, my apologies if the members thought that this thread was accusatory. Still the question remains, what next?
Ok, I understand, no use bringing it up again, sorry, let me go back and read other interesting threads on "investments" and "buying houses"...
How about we start writing letters to the WhiteHouse/President on
(i) Eliminate per country quota limits
(ii) Recapture the lost visas
(iii) Porcessing dates cannot go back
for administrative fixes ?
BTW, my apologies if the members thought that this thread was accusatory. Still the question remains, what next?
Ok, I understand, no use bringing it up again, sorry, let me go back and read other interesting threads on "investments" and "buying houses"...
How about we start writing letters to the WhiteHouse/President on
(i) Eliminate per country quota limits
(ii) Recapture the lost visas
(iii) Porcessing dates cannot go back
for administrative fixes ?
more...
amitjoey
02-15 02:20 PM
I don\'t want to stand in line three times longer just because 60 percent of the applicants are natives of one country. Look what\'s going on with H-1B. There is no per-country quota and ROW is simply screwed.
How is ROW getting screwed?. Look at the situation as individuals applying irrespective of country of birth. Last Year, there were 120,000(approx) applicants and only 60,000(approx) H1-b1 visas. NOW: It just happens that a lot or 60%were natives of one country. But that does not mean anything... There could be more ROW applicants who could apply, no body is stopping them. There are just not enough ROW applicants that employers can find.
Also remember countries like India, China do not qualify for diversity visas. So an ROW applicant also has that advantage. Most people from small african countries and others qualify to apply there. China, India, Phillipines, Mexico are also backlogged in the family category. ROW has that advantage too.
How is ROW getting screwed?. Look at the situation as individuals applying irrespective of country of birth. Last Year, there were 120,000(approx) applicants and only 60,000(approx) H1-b1 visas. NOW: It just happens that a lot or 60%were natives of one country. But that does not mean anything... There could be more ROW applicants who could apply, no body is stopping them. There are just not enough ROW applicants that employers can find.
Also remember countries like India, China do not qualify for diversity visas. So an ROW applicant also has that advantage. Most people from small african countries and others qualify to apply there. China, India, Phillipines, Mexico are also backlogged in the family category. ROW has that advantage too.
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shana04
04-23 10:03 PM
All,
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
Congrats, you deserve it.
Opened my email this morning to see the card production ordered email (time stamp in my inbox reads 2:15 am PST 4/23/08); the approval date was 4/23/08.
Been in meetings all day so not even a chance to call anyone about it.
Yay!
Good luck to all my fellow sufferers!
Googler
Congrats, you deserve it.
more...
aquarianf
07-31 03:03 PM
I reviewed copy of I-485 packegae and found that attorney didn't include Employment letter with package. I filed in June I already received filing numbers.
When I asked attorney why it wasn't sent, her response was that there are around 15 people from company who filed in month of June/july and she didn't included EVL for all of them. Also there are around 8 people who got their GC in my company in last 2 years and she didn't included EVL for all of them.
When I asked attorney why it wasn't sent, her response was that there are around 15 people from company who filed in month of June/july and she didn't included EVL for all of them. Also there are around 8 people who got their GC in my company in last 2 years and she didn't included EVL for all of them.
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go_getter007
05-29 03:08 AM
You are in *their* country so you have to follow *their* laws. If you don't like it, you have two choices - suck it up OR get out of there.
GG_007
While on the way back from White Mountains in NH, our car was stopped on I-93 south by the US border patrol. They were stopping every single vehicle to question. They had over a dozen Govt vehicles with 40-50 people in uniform. My buddy was driving.
Officer : Sir what is your status in the US ?
Buddy: I am on L1 visa
I: H1B
buddy's wife: L2
my wife: H4
officer: is anyone US citizen ?
I: my son is (he was sitting in the car seat)
Officer: (to my buddy) Is your visa still valid ?
Buddy: yes
officer: do you have documents to prove your status?
buddy: i have some papers in my bag which in the the trunk
officer: can you show me?
(buddy got out showed him tax papers and answered some questions)
officer: did they not tell you you are supposed to carry your papers while travelling?
buddy: I came over a year ago so i don't remember
officer: I am letting you go, but i could have fined you $2000; $500 for each pasenger with no papers.
I was so pissed off by this experience, clearly they are doing this to harrase immigrants. theoratically even if I am going for a walk i am supposed to carry immigration papers because a border patrol officer, in theory, could asks me for my papers ?
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/immigration_Border_flyer.pdf
I have decided that if anyone ask me such a stupid question again inside the US and i am just going to remain silent even if that means they detain me for some time.
GG_007
While on the way back from White Mountains in NH, our car was stopped on I-93 south by the US border patrol. They were stopping every single vehicle to question. They had over a dozen Govt vehicles with 40-50 people in uniform. My buddy was driving.
Officer : Sir what is your status in the US ?
Buddy: I am on L1 visa
I: H1B
buddy's wife: L2
my wife: H4
officer: is anyone US citizen ?
I: my son is (he was sitting in the car seat)
Officer: (to my buddy) Is your visa still valid ?
Buddy: yes
officer: do you have documents to prove your status?
buddy: i have some papers in my bag which in the the trunk
officer: can you show me?
(buddy got out showed him tax papers and answered some questions)
officer: did they not tell you you are supposed to carry your papers while travelling?
buddy: I came over a year ago so i don't remember
officer: I am letting you go, but i could have fined you $2000; $500 for each pasenger with no papers.
I was so pissed off by this experience, clearly they are doing this to harrase immigrants. theoratically even if I am going for a walk i am supposed to carry immigration papers because a border patrol officer, in theory, could asks me for my papers ?
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/immigration_Border_flyer.pdf
I have decided that if anyone ask me such a stupid question again inside the US and i am just going to remain silent even if that means they detain me for some time.
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Bhargav Goswami
07-13 12:41 PM
Sheela Murthy is not my lawyer but I often check out her office's website as it is quite informative. If she's written a well thought our letter to Chertoff - it's to our benefit...we should welcome any ally we can instead of turning them away.
Some of you who've so viciously attacked her please get a life or get medical help. Why such pain???
Some of you who've so viciously attacked her please get a life or get medical help. Why such pain???
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karan007
03-07 05:09 AM
I am in the same boat. Consulted 2 attorneys, both of them provided very different overview. As per one using AC21 was very easy, didn't require much paperwork from employer (letter of employment with job responsibilities). The other one suggested that the new employer needs to support the green card process & made it sound like serious work.
Another interesting note was, the attorney who mentioned it was easy, would have charged $500 for the process vs $2500 + expenses. So kind off figured that one has to justify charge $2,500, hence the additional paperwork, etc (scare factor).
I did some research over the web. Came to the conclusion that utilizing AC21 is pretty simple. I am moving forward with it and starting my new job in April.
Since this is a big decision, I would suggest that you get a second opinion
Good Luck...
Another interesting note was, the attorney who mentioned it was easy, would have charged $500 for the process vs $2500 + expenses. So kind off figured that one has to justify charge $2,500, hence the additional paperwork, etc (scare factor).
I did some research over the web. Came to the conclusion that utilizing AC21 is pretty simple. I am moving forward with it and starting my new job in April.
Since this is a big decision, I would suggest that you get a second opinion
Good Luck...
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abd
09-14 05:00 PM
Looks like contacting senator/congressman is pissing off the IOs and they are issuing the RFEs. I wish now that I did not do either of these. But unfortunately I did so I guess I need to bear the consequences. So I should just expect RFE now. I know quiet a few people who wrote to Senators and got RFEs. I guess people in Jul/Aug really overwhelmed the TSC with Senator calls and now we have to face their wrath.
I didn't do anything. I was patiently waiting for my turn. It seems they picked my case for approval and sent RFE because of I-129 revoke which is standard process.
I didn't do anything. I was patiently waiting for my turn. It seems they picked my case for approval and sent RFE because of I-129 revoke which is standard process.
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rock
06-22 10:54 PM
When you get 485 approval you will not need EAD or AP :D
It's OK to file for EAD and AP yourself, I did it 4 times but you need I-485 receipt notice and I-140 receipt and then approval notice to do that. So if you are wiling to wait till your lawyer get notices (it could be months for those who are filing in July) and your employer and lawyer will provide you a copy of all notices - it's fine to file yourself.
Hi voldemar,
I am also in the similar but not exact situation. Recently I changed the employer. My new employer is going to file I-140 and I-485 using the Labor substitution.I also want to file EAD and AP but the company attorney is saying it is safer to file the EAD and AP once the I-140 is approved. Can any one please answer this is true or not? Should I wait for I-140 to be approved or should I try convince the attorney to file EAD and AP also along with I-140 and I-485. I have one more question which is if We do not file the EAD and AP along with the I-485 and once the priority dates are retrogessed. Can we file EAD and AP even though the priority dates are not current and our I-485 is pending?
I would appreciate the answers and any official links if available.
Thanks
It's OK to file for EAD and AP yourself, I did it 4 times but you need I-485 receipt notice and I-140 receipt and then approval notice to do that. So if you are wiling to wait till your lawyer get notices (it could be months for those who are filing in July) and your employer and lawyer will provide you a copy of all notices - it's fine to file yourself.
Hi voldemar,
I am also in the similar but not exact situation. Recently I changed the employer. My new employer is going to file I-140 and I-485 using the Labor substitution.I also want to file EAD and AP but the company attorney is saying it is safer to file the EAD and AP once the I-140 is approved. Can any one please answer this is true or not? Should I wait for I-140 to be approved or should I try convince the attorney to file EAD and AP also along with I-140 and I-485. I have one more question which is if We do not file the EAD and AP along with the I-485 and once the priority dates are retrogessed. Can we file EAD and AP even though the priority dates are not current and our I-485 is pending?
I would appreciate the answers and any official links if available.
Thanks
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ajju
03-18 10:26 PM
I think Nixtor should explain why he even bothered to call Mr. Foggs' number. There are many many people in this forum with incorrect phone numbers. Why nixtor is not banning all of them. There is even a member with handle 'taliban'.
Nixstor did explained his actions and I concur... Controversial handles should be banned... Handle "TALIBAN" was banned and same member opened new handle "TAWLIBANN" saying his name is Tawlibann Foggs...
Anyway we should close this issue.. I do find tawlibann's posts decent and non-offensive.. Only thing is we need to practice some respect to the communitity when chosing a handle... Its just not this.. there could be potentially other offensive handles.. So I'd say there should be a step/check in registration process to monitor/regulate handles... You won't like any handle offending your religious beliefs, dis-respecting your nation or humanity itself...
Just my 2 cents... We should stop this discussion and focus on immigration issues...
RED DOTS: Looks like lots of people are in excuse of getting offended.. and spreading RED DOTS... Good Luck...
Nixstor did explained his actions and I concur... Controversial handles should be banned... Handle "TALIBAN" was banned and same member opened new handle "TAWLIBANN" saying his name is Tawlibann Foggs...
Anyway we should close this issue.. I do find tawlibann's posts decent and non-offensive.. Only thing is we need to practice some respect to the communitity when chosing a handle... Its just not this.. there could be potentially other offensive handles.. So I'd say there should be a step/check in registration process to monitor/regulate handles... You won't like any handle offending your religious beliefs, dis-respecting your nation or humanity itself...
Just my 2 cents... We should stop this discussion and focus on immigration issues...
RED DOTS: Looks like lots of people are in excuse of getting offended.. and spreading RED DOTS... Good Luck...
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mpillai
05-08 10:04 AM
I feel your pain, But, what was the point of firing same requests to USCIS from thousands of users? Wont that cause more delay for some other FOIA requests? FOIA requests are required to be responded by law, so you are guaranteed a reply even if only 1 user files the request.
I got a reply from USCIS saying that they can process the request sorted by priority date and country of birth of the applicant.
I got a reply from USCIS saying that they can process the request sorted by priority date and country of birth of the applicant.
new_horizon
03-17 11:00 AM
the only good thing I see there are families in which both husband and wife filed separate GC petition. When one's gc process goes thru completion, the other petition will be withdrawn from the queue. : )
hope there are more cases like that.
hope there are more cases like that.
deepimpact
09-10 08:50 PM
It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.
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